November 6, 2013

[...] The lure of first-round picks is in what they can yield, not what they always do. It is well established, of course, that many first-round picks are failures relative to expectation, and this is truer the lower they are. However, first-rounders can yield star talent, star talent that has no choice but to sign with you. It can yield quality role players for basement prices, and it can yield contributors in any form you choose. Most importantly, however, first-rounders are always young and cheap. Bad teams need this to get good, and good teams need this to stay good when the market forces and punitive luxury taxes designed to break them up necessitate they cut costs. Talent is talent, but cheap, young talent is the best type of talent.

Back at the start of the summer, Utah took on a whopping $25 million in salary that it didn't want in the forms of Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Brandon Rush, purely to acquire two first-round picks and three second-round picks from the Golden State Warriors. The Jazz did this because it was more beneficial to their long-term rebuilding goal to target first-round picks, and that amount of money is now the cost of acquiring them. Or at least, it should be. First-round picks should be a valued commodity, much more than they were. Now, it seems as though they finally are.

A cursory look at the market indicates this change in philosophy. The last few deals to have included first-round picks include:


- Washington trading a pick (top-12 protected in 2014, top-10 protected through 2019, thereafter unprotected) along with Emeka Okafor in exchange for Marcin Gortat.

- Indiana trading a pick (lottery protected through 2019, thereafter unprotected) along with Miles Plumlee and Gerald Green in exchange for Luis Scola

- Boston acquiring first-rounders in all of 2014, 2016 and 2018 as a part of the Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett deal

- New Orleans acquiring Jrue Holiday and Pierre Jackson in exchange for the rights to Nerlens Noel and a 2014 first-round pick

- Toronto acquiring a 2016 first-round pick from New York -- along with two second-round picks, Steve Novak and Marcus Camby -- in exchange for Andrea Bargnani

In that list, we mostly see first-rounders traded for quality. Hall of Fame players like Pierce and Garnett, fringe All-Stars like Holiday or non-lottery picks for a legitimate starting center in Gortat. The ones where we don't see that -- the deals for Scola and Bargnani -- therefore stand out as bad deals for that reason. The inclusion of the first-round picks in each instance leaves the recipient team drastically overpaying for backup-caliber forwards. And if he's not re-signed or extended, the Gortat deal might join them.

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January 5, 2011

Steve Novak - Dallas waived Novak yesterday after giving him a spot out of training camp. His dye is cast, too, and unashamedly so, although the three point specialist managed to get off as many twos (4) and he did threes (4) in his brief stint with the Mavericks. This is probably not evidence of Novak's development into a more all-around player, however.

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September 28, 2010

If the Mavericks just want someone to hit open threes, they'd be better off with Steve Novak. Novak is the most one dimensional player in the NBA, doing literally nothing else but taking three point jumpshots (usually only just having enough to time to take his tracksuit off as Mike Dunleavy Sr throws him into one possession situations two hours after his pre-game warm-up ends). It's therefore a blessing and a happy coincidence that he's very good at it. Novak didn't shoot the three well last year, shooting only 31% from there and helped in no small part by the incredibly unfair way in which he was used (unfair, and yet, as a specialist, something he'll have to live with until he ups his total rebounding percentage from 5.3%). His jumpshot should not be doubted, though.

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July 30, 2010

Steve Novak - In four years, Steve Novak has made absolutely no attempt to be anything other than a three point shooter. He is about as one dimensional as it is possible to be. For the Clippers last season, Novak took 71 three pointers, 27 two pointers, 9 free throws, did not play defense, and had a worse-than-usual total rebounding percentage of 5.3%. (Of the 441 players who played in the NBA last season, 387 of them had a better total rebounding percentage than that, including many guards. And of the 53 players that were worse, only Rasual Butler, Jason Kapono, Taylor Griffin and Paul Davis are not guards. Griffin and Davis played 40 minutes combined. The other two are comparably one dimensional shooters.) Novak turned it over twice in only 362 minutes, which is quite incredible, yet understandable when you consider that if ever Novak catches the ball, it is to shoot. And missed shots don't count as turnovers. Novak's career 3PT% of .403% proves his worth in this regard, yet does anyone have room on their roster for someone so truly limited? Hell, even the Clippers opted for Brian Cook over him next year.

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July 12, 2010

Dante Cunningham

Considering he's always been a power forward in a small forward's body, Cunningham made a pretty decent effort of pretending otherwise. Given plenty of opportunities due to injury, Cunningham shot his customary mid range two's well, rebounding well enough for a man of his size, and proved he could play defense on most small and power forwards. He also turned it over only 25 times all year, leading all rookies in turnover percentage at 6.0%. This is helped significantly by the fact that he doesn't dribble, but nevertheless, it's a hugely impressive number. (Tyler Hansbrough was next lowest at 7.1% in his part-season of work; Marcus Thornton was third at 7.3%. The worst? Jrue Holiday, 21.9%. Then James Johnson. Then Hasheem Thabeet.)

In fact, not only did it lead all rookies, the only player that played significant minutes (i.e. more than 500) to have a lower turnover percentage than that was Maurice Evans at 4.5%. Michael Redd had only a 5.8%, but he barely played all season. And Steve Novak had a 1.8% in 57 games; however, he only played 14 seconds per game. (NB: That figure is exaggerated slightly.)

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