August 31, 2018

[...] It does not help that the team's best shooting options outside of George are Abrines and Patterson, the two movable expiring mid-range salaries per the above who could otherwise theoretically be moved to provide short term financial relief. It further does not help that Grant is a limited shooter from the outside, and Schroeder is a sub-par one for a lead guard as well. It only makes it worse that both Noel and third string point guard Raymond Felton are also not plus shooters, and that while Terrence Ferguson projects to be a decent shooter in his future, he is not one yet. Luwawu-Cabarrot has a similar projection yet has not done enough in two years to show himself as being worthy of a spot in the rotation; the rotation, then, features one good shooter (George), two decent ones who do little else, don't do anything significant to get open and who would ideally be salary dumped (Abrines and Patterson), and a bunch of mediocre to bad shooters. [...]

[...] That said, the struggles without him were only partly due to Roberson's own impact. In large part, they were also due to the lacklustre options that replaced him. Abrines was a timid shooter who had too many nothing games, Terrence Ferguson took even fewer dribbles than he, and although he was the best defender of the bench, Josh Huestis was somehow even less of an offensive threat that Roberson, while not being the tour de force on defence. Singler wasn't trusted at all, and ultimately, two point guard line-ups featuring Felton became a turned-to option, such was the plight at the position sans Roberson. Brewer shined in relative terms by virtue of being able to play both ends of the court capably, not because he was especially good. [...]

[...] Internal growth projections for the Thunder's shooting disparity are not favourable. Westbrook would have to make a significant post-30 improvement, and in five years, Schroeder has somehow gone back under the 30% mark again. Felton has managed only a 32.9% career mark in 13 seasons. Abrines has the best looking stroke, but his physical profile makes a high volume of shots hard to foresee, while Patterson's knee problems have seen him really regress as a player. Ferguson could be a good one, but needs to prove himself capable of a sizeable role for that to be of true value. The same is true of rookie Hamadou Diallo, whose form thus far has been better than his results. Adams and Noel have shown no signs and should be on the offensive glass anyway. And although Grant is now likely getting the starting stretch four role, he has never been a good one anyway.

Additionally, the need to move either Abrines or Patterson may be too strong to resist. Starting from the above post-Singler, post-Nader tax position ($212,302,746 combined tax and salary expense), that number would plummet to a combined $182,904,953 if Abrines was salary dumped for no returning salary, or $182,924,042 if Patterson was. If we play devil's advocate for a moment (and conveniently ignore minimum roster size rules for the sake of argument), that number could be $158,590,895 if both somehow were.

The Thunder need both plenty of outside shooting, and salary cap flexibility. And yet they could save $54 million by getting rid of Abrines and Patterson. $54 million they could reinvest, both immediately and in the future, on better players, and via otherwise exhaustible assets they currently stand only to lose. Do they really need Abrines and Patterson that badly?

It is of course neither hugely realistic nor ever required to completely pass off their salaries for nothing in return, particularly in the case of Patterson, who is older and who has an option for next season. Yet were it to be done, those are the savings that could be recouped. Savings which could then allow the team to utilise its as-yet mostly unused mid-level exception and eight figure trade exception to get better quality players than those two. They are the two best shooting role players that the Thunder have, but this does not make them good value. [...]

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June 29, 2018

Alex Abrines
SG - 6’6, 190lbs - 24 years old - 2 years of experience

At various times throughout the season, the Thunder were looking for a starting shooting guard. At all times, they were looking for bench depth and high quality outside shooting. Abrines was supposed to fit the latter of this in particular. And yet he was found wanting.

To be sure, Abrines is a good outside shooter. Habit of a lifetime. But sometimes he doesn’t play as though he is. Particularly in the first third of the season, Abrines was all too often gun shy - considering shooting from outside is his one plus NBA skill, he needs to assert his excellence at doing it, but he wasn’t doing that. Abrines would pass up all but the most exquisite of looks, and if he’s not getting shots up, then he’s not really doing anything.

Abrines is not going to create offence with the handle ever. All but one of his three-pointers on the season (and every single one in the regular season) was assisted. Nor will he ever go to the rack unless the front door is wide open. Nor does he even take any but the most occasional step-in pull-up twos. He is there to float about and cast them up. When he does not do so, he just floats about. It is therefore of note that Abrines did get more offensively aggressive during the second half of the season. But not before he had already lost his place to Corey Brewer.

On the plus side, Abrines seems to be getting better as an NBA perimeter defender as his career progresses. He is not necessarily good at this, but he is getting better. Three-and-D remains the non-star NBA wing template, and Abrines is getting there. Very slowly.

Player Plan: One year and $5,455,236 remaining. Extension eligible but rarely do players sign extensions for pay cuts, which is what Abrines would merit right now. He is still needed, and Kyle Singler is the more obvious salary dump, but this spot is vulnerable.

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June 29, 2017

Alex Abrines
SG, 6’6, 190lbs, 23 years old, 1 year of experience

Possibly the best shooter on the team, Abrines got a good amount of minutes on that basis alone, despite the limitations of his game elsewhere. A non-factor on the glass, a non-factor inside the arc (apart from the occasional dart down a wide open lane), a non-handler of the ball and with a lot of work to do defensively, Abrines was all about the quick outside catch-and-shoot. It helps a lot, then, that he was good at it. Needs to get stronger and improve his ability to stay in front on defence of players like himself.

Player Plan: Two years and a smidge over $11.2 million remaining. Year one wasn’t quite up to par, but that was the initial adjustment year. Should be worth it going forward.

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